Currency reports are routinely prepared and distributed by investment banks to clients worldwide. Typically, a currency report is focused on either one or a set of exchange rates. The report includes an analysis of the macro and micro-economic fundamentals of the countries involved, in absolute terms as well as relatively to the world business cycle, as related to your forecast: For instance, is the country in a recession? Does the domestic currency belong to any particular exchange rate regime? Then, the report often describes major economic, financial, and political events taking place in the selected currency markets in the last few weeks and months: Elections, Central Bank interventions, important monetary or fiscal decisions recently taken, etc. Finally, the report uses all of this and other information to formulate a short (up to 1 year), medium (up to 3 years), and long-term (up to 5 years) forecast of the selected exchange rate(s).
Your analysis has to employ the tools and techniques we have discussed in class (Unbiased Hypothesis (UH), Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP), Relative Purchasing Power Parity (RPPP), and a fundamental factor model (FFM) ), ), as well as any other economic, financial, or statistical tool you may be comfortable with.
